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It is hard to find an ecomomist that is honest about the economy. Two that I have found are Libertarian John Willaims and Social Democrat Michael Hudson. The below quotes by Michael Hudson, and the quotes fro John Wiliam’s web site, Shadow Government Statistics, give an honest appraisal of todays Economy:
Trumponomics and the Stock Market So Michael, if the stock prices are not increasing because of what Trump calls “high business spirit,” explain the rise in the stock prices. Michael Hudson: The answer’s quite simple. The key is, who is buying these stocks? It’s not individuals. It’s not even pension funds. It’s not the private sector. Almost all the stock purchases are being bought back by corporations in share buyback programs. In other words, companies are buying their own stocks in order to push up the price. by Michael Hudson
Shadow Government Statistics Commentary 903 Opening Comments and Executive Summary Real World, Negative Economic News Intensified, Despite Heavily-Gimmicked GDP and Labor Numbers: Mounting Political and Policy Issues for the Administration and the FOMC. With headlines such as the unemployment rate at a sixteen-year low and GDP growth purportedly on the rise, it is understandable that the current Administration takes credit for the good news. The problems with that, however, are twofold. First, most of the better-quality, underlying economic series show that headline economic activity never recovered fully from the collapse into 2009, having yet to reach the status of “Economic Expansion” (see Commentary No. 876), and they are turning down anew. Headline labor and GDP eventually will come into line with underlying reality. Second, the U.S. economy does not change direction quickly, usually with a time-lag of nine-to-twelve months, often more. Accordingly, whatever is happening in the current economy largely still reflects circumstances in place during the prior Administration. That will change within the next four-to-six months, in time for the current Administration to receive credit for a new recession that already is in play. Similar circumstances were seen where the 2001 recession came out of the Clinton Administration and was credited to the Bush Administration, where the 2007 recession and economic collapse unfolded during the Bush Administration and was taken on by the Obama Administration and now, in its residual, re-intensifying form, has been passed on to the Trump Administration. The President always needs to exude optimism, but rather than taking credit for turning the economy around, prudent caution on what lies ahead and intensified pressure on Congress to generate new economic stimulus might make some sense. . . .
LIberal Economists and Liberals, in general do not see todays’ conditions in class terms.
The Question How Can the Stock Market Be at an all time high, since 2009, while the Gross National Product has basically remained at the same as the its 2009 level? See Shadow Government Statistics — Commentary No. 879, April 7, 2017.
The answer is simple. The Capitalist, due to the treachery of the trade union bureaucracy, which openly are ‘in partneship’ with capitalism, have been able to steal the working class’s share of the surplus valve that they produce. And through dividends, buybacks, and reinvesting in their own stocks. Thus the rise in the stock market reflect the rise in profits, but not through any new value produced.
From the Harvard Business Review a 2014 article, Profits Without Prosperity By William Lazonick: Five years after the official end of the Great Recession, corporate profits are high, and the stock market is booming. Yet most Americans are not sharing in the recovery. While the top 0.1% of income recipients—which include most of the highest-ranking corporate executives—reap almost all the income gains, good jobs keep disappearing, and new employment opportunities tend to be insecure and underpaid. Corporate profitability is not translating into widespread economic prosperity. The allocation of corporate profits to stock buybacks deserves much of the blame. Consider the 449 companies in the S&P 500 index that were publicly listed from 2003 through 2012. During that period those companies used 54% of their earnings—a total of $2.4 trillion—to buy back their own stock, almost all through purchases on the open market. Dividends absorbed an additional 37% of their earnings. That left very little for investments in productive capabilities or higher incomes for employees. At the same time, Real Wages have Fallen Since the Wage Price Freeze of 1972 (Shadow Government Statistics): Graph 3 plots the seasonally-adjusted earnings as officially deflated by the BLS (red-line), and as adjusted for the ShadowStats-Alternate CPI Measure, 1990-Base (blue-line). When inflation-depressing methodologies of the 1990s began to kick-in, the artificially-weakened CPI-W (also used in calculating Social Security cost-of-living adjustments) helped to prop up the reported real earnings. Official real earnings today still have not recovered their inflation-adjusted levels of the early-1970s, and, at best, have been in a minimal uptrend for the last two decades (albeit spiked recently by negative headline inflation). Deflated by the ShadowStats (1990-Based) measure, real earnings have been in fairly-regular decline for the last four decades, which is much closer to common experience than the pattern suggested by the CPI-W. See the Public Commentary on Inflation Measurement for further detail.Also at the during the same period, more than 1 in 5 workers has been unemployed. Shadow Government Statists Alternate Unemployment Chart:The capitalists have not only stolen wages, but they have also stolen deferred wages. As the Capitalists have stolen from pension funds, social security funds, and undercut unemployment/welfare payments and the Financial institutions are robbing are the working class and the youth through usury, since usury is legal again. Read: How a Supreme Court ruling killed off usury laws for credit card rates and Students loans fail usury test. (See Graphs Below)
It is only a matter of time before this stock market rise bubble bursts again, since it does not reflect any increase in real value, but paper value.
Capitalism can only impose more theft (Austerity) to solve its’ current crisis, imposed by the Iron Heel, if necessary.
The only real alternative to the paper illusion of Capitalist prosperity, is the socialist solution. — To act collectively, in our overall interests for our survival as a species, to correct the problem and to remove the obstacle of capitalism. It requires a society where humanity has social, economic, and political control over the entire environment. Such a society, a socialist society, is needed to ensure that all decisions affecting the environment are under the democratic control of humankind so that the production of goods will be done for the needs and survival of planet and humanity instead of the production and the destruction of humanity and other species for profit.