Daily News 09/27

Daily News 09/27

Not Counting El Niño: Hurricane Polo, high tides and Kelvin wave bring worry to the coast! Forecasters are keeping careful watch on yet another hurricane building off Mexico’s coast that could spell trouble for Southern California’s coastline early next week. If the direction of Hurricane Polo, called one of the most powerful Pacific cyclones in decades, holds, then it is expected to send big waves to our region as early as Sunday, Sept. 27, with the biggest waves expected on Monday. It would be coinciding with extreme high tides near 6 feet that would push waves even higher, up to a foot, experts said. And add in a Kelvin wave — a warm-water anomaly expected to show up any time now — and even higher water levels could mean greater concern for the area’s already struggling coastline.

Super-Duper El Nino and the Bigger Problem By James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Dylan Morgan and Jasen Vest Abstract. The ongoing El Nino is already the strongest in the modern record. However, increasing global climate anomalies, poleward shifting of climate zones, increased rainfall extremes, more rapid flash droughts and fires, and marine heat waves are a result of accelerating human-made global warming. The abnormal El Nino strength is itself likely human-driven. Our graphs are continually updated on our website. 2 We are on Substack3 . The El Nino has blossomed. It is off the charts. Usual measures of El Nino have blown past prior record levels in the period with good data, even though maximum effects are still several months in the future. Our preferred metric, the heat anomaly in the upper 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (Figs. 1, 2), already exceeds the 1997-98 super El Nino. Note in Fig. 1 that the 2023-24 El Nino, which drove extreme global warming, was only a moderate El Nino. The more common Nino3.4 metric, sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific, also far exceeds prior values, but this ocean skin temperature is affected more by global warming than the 300 m heat is. The tropical ocean heat content (via heat exhalation to the atmosphere) and the skin temperature (via the Bjerknes feedback) each affect El Nino strength, so both are relevant metrics.

For Monthis the UN Informed the World About El Niño

In their letter to NOAA the lawmakers write: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is warning of a potentially historic Super El Niño, with a “greater than 90% chance of a very strong” event and a 75% chance it exceeds the strength of every El Niño recorded since 1950. The consequences of this Super El Niño could be severe: extreme weather, crop failures, flooding and drought, worsening global hunger, and significant economic losses that cost trillions. The United States cannot afford to be caught flat-footed. The destruction caused by a Super El Niño could cascade to negatively impact U.S. interests, security, and commerce. In 2015, an El Niño left up to 100 million people food insecure. The World Food Program estimates this Super El Niño could push at least 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. This warning comes as President Trump has weakened the very agency responsible for forecasting and preparing Americans for these threats. NOAA must take these concerns seriously. NOAA must have the personnel, data, research, and resources necessary to warn Americans and help communities prepare before disaster strikes. Preparation for potentially historic weather events must remain a high priority.—Lawmakers warn that weakened federal weather infrastructure could leave Americans less prepared for potentially historic extreme weather

I’m sure most of you have had enough of these “once in a lifetime” ordeals (COVID-19, storm surges, solar storms …), but being sick of something awful won’t make it go away. Just look at who’s still in the White House. Now, I’m not blaming this super El Niño on Trump; even he can’t muck things up that bad. I mention him to point out that the federal government should be doing a lot more to prepare for what’s coming. Waiting to see if it actually happens and hoping it doesn’t has its problems. For one, the weather typically doesn’t respond to Trump’s medley of negotiation tactics (coming up with little nicknames, posting AI slop on social media, Sharpies or his favorite: frivolous lawsuits). And two, disasters tend to be significantly worse when you’re caught unprepared. — The ‘super’ El Niño is here. Trump chose to be unprepared

Mearsheimer predicts that the Trump administration is aware that the US has failed and is waiting until after the midterm elections to make a decision about next steps, but he cautions that the US will be in the same position militarily as it is now — the world could enter a long-term economic recession, or worse, depression, by that time. The Bessent strategy of increasing sanctions and recruiting allies to participate in an economic blockade of Iran isn’t working either, as major powers like China and Russia have already defied the US and continue to work with Iran. — Chris Hedges: The Iran War and the Looming Economic Collapse

The clock is ticking as the closure of the Strait and the successful Ansar Allah attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, blocking Gulf oil coming through the Red Sea, are causing oil supplies, including what remains in the strategic reserves, to dwindle. As it currently stands, the US and Israel have failed to achieve virtually all of their military objectives. Israel’s most important stated goal, preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, is hardly even discussed anymore. With the Supreme Leader assassinated, one of the last remaining impediments to Iranian nuclear armament is gone, and the new guard is increasingly considering developing nuclear weapons. With the US and Israel facing military defeat and devastating economic consequences, a new regional power is rising, and the relationships that have defined the era of US hegemony are shifting rapidly. — Chris Hedges: The Iran War and the Looming Economic Collapse

Video: This El Niño Is About To Cause a Global CatastropheThe current El Niño is shaping up to cause catastrophe on a global scale. Global temperatures are being pushed up, unleashing extreme weather which could devastate ecosystems. The heat alone is expected to kill half a million people over the next five months. Sea-surface temperatures are expected to climb 4°C above average in parts of the Pacific – and it’s becoming clear this is an issue that affects us all. From extreme heat in some places to heavy rainfall in others, many countries are bracing for impact. Combined with the threat of “king tides”, California has even declared a state of emergency. Despite the sweltering heat we’ve just experienced, forecasters now say 2027 will be the hottest year on record – before it’s even begun. So how can we prepare?

Video: Lake Mead Is Running Out — These California Cities Lose Water FirstCalifornia has long relied on the Colorado River as one of the foundations of Southern California’s water system. But as Lake Mead continues toward dangerously low elevations, the legal protections that once appeared to shield California from deeper cuts are colliding with a much harder reality: there may simply not be enough physical water left to deliver.

Video: Mostly Economics Podcast #53: Get Dark Money Out of American Politics with Tiffany Muller In today’s Mostly Economics episode, Dean takes a sobering look at the many levers of corruption shaping US politics with Tiffany Muller, president of End Citizens United. They discuss the influence of AI and big money on politics, the impact of the Citizens United decision, the consequences of a captured Supreme Court, and potential reforms to restore democracy. Muller also highlights the role of campaign finance, media control, and state-level initiatives in shaping America’s democratic future.

Video: Earth’s Greatest Enemy Preview A gripping and eye-opening documentary, Earth’s Greatest Enemy follows Abby Martin as she challenges the widely accepted idea that climate change can be solved through individual consumer habits, instead identifying the United States military as one of the most significant drivers of environmental destruction.

AI Overview: The convergence of a structural crisis in capitalism, worsening global warming, potential economic collapse, and the escalating risk of war has led many forward-looking analysts to label 2027 a critical “crunch year” or “polycrisis” apex. Rather than acting as isolated events, these macro-threats are compounding, where the failure or escalation of one directly fuels the others

4. The Geopolitical “Crunch Year” and War

UK shares findings of damning climate crisis national security report suppressed under StarmerEl Niño poses critical threat to nations’ defences, says Ed Miliband in presentation to global foreign ministers

Scientific American: This year’s El Niño just broke another sobering record “This is probably going to be the superlative El Niño event of our lives so far,” a climate scientist says . . .. Kim Wood, an associate professor of hydrology and atmospheric sciences at the University of Arizona, said in a social media post that the region’s sea surface temperatures have been “unparalleled” for this time of year “for a while.” Based on a measurement that accounts for background warming of ocean temperatures as a result of climate change, this year’s El Niño hasn’t yet hit an all-time high, but it is hotter than it’s ever been for late September. No matter how you slice it, the new record is a sign of what experts say will be a brutal El Niño. “This is probably going to be the superlative El Niño event of our lives so far,” says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources (UCANR). That’s bad news for an already warming planet. As Scientific American previously reported, El Niño events typically raise global temperatures, which puts this year, as well as 2027, at risk of being among the hottest years ever recorded.

UN Secretary-General cites Nepal’s melting glaciers as world faces severe climate threats Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted Nepal’s severe vulnerability to global warming during his opening address at the 81st Session of the UN General Assembly, recalling his high-altitude warning from the Himalayas to caution world leaders that climate destruction is advancing far faster than predicted.

Something In The Ocean Just Confirmed What Scientists Were Hoping Wasn’t TrueIn late September 2026, a key stretch of the equatorial Pacific set a new all-time daily warmth record, about two months before El Niño events normally peak, and every major forecast model says it is still strengthening. This video explains what that reading confirmed, why scientists had been warning about it all summer, and how warm water thousands of miles away steers the storms that reach the United States. We follow what NOAA’s latest outlook means for the winter ahead, from California’s early state of emergency and rising coastal seas to Florida’s tornado risk and a milder North, and we look at what the 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Niños actually did, including the surprises. The biggest open question may not be this winter at all.

The Only Victor

Middle East war: world ‘order’ faces perfect storm Every day the persistent beat of war drums in the Middle East gets ever louder and more threatening. Recent weeks have seen what appears to be an irresistible drift in the direction of a renewal of armed conflict between the United States and Iran.

‘The Billion Dollar Deal’: Senate Democrats Detail How Trump Serves Fossil Fuel Industry “Our new report exposes this old-fashioned corruption, by a thuggish government and a desperate industry, that is squeezing every last dollar out of Americans’ pocketbooks while they still can.”

Iran War Profiteer!; Report: Trump and Big Oil see financial windfall as Americans pay more at pump President Donald Trump’s holdings of oil and gas stocks have gained millions of dollars in value since he began US military attacks on Iran, according to Congress’ Joint Economic Committee minority staff.

Could Trump, Who Coveted a Nobel Peace Prize, Become the Worst War Criminal in History? In his UN General Assembly speech this week, Trump told the world that he is in the process of deciding whether to “annihilate” Iran and “send them to hell,” implying that he might use nuclear weapons. He has to be convinced that this is totally unacceptable—before he does something even more crazy than usual!

Civil rights lawyer Ben Crump releases data from Nolan Wells’ cellphone Messaging ‘very telling’, says Crump after grand jury said it found no evidence of criminal conduct in teen’s death